Data! Distancing works!

[sonia]

Bay Area is Flattening the Curve by Sudha KV. "The Bay Area put its Shelter in Place effective Mar 17. I have compared data from Mar 15 to about 6 pm PT on Mar, 22, which was the time of this writing. And, I will continue to update this article over the coming days with more data." The graphs are conclusive. via swan_tower

There are Four Groups of People, a series of graphics that clearly explain how and why social distancing, aka STAY HOME, works.

Keeping the Coronavirus from Infecting Health-Care Workers by Atul Gawande via siderea

In Hong Kong and Singapore, they don’t shut the place down or put everyone under home quarantine. They do their best to trace every contact and then quarantine only those who had close contact with the infected person. In Hong Kong, “close contact” means fifteen minutes at a distance of less than six feet and without the use of a surgical mask; in Singapore, thirty minutes. If the exposure is shorter than the prescribed limit but within six feet for more than two minutes, workers can stay on the job if they wear a surgical mask and have twice-daily temperature checks. People who have had brief, incidental contact are just asked to monitor themselves for symptoms.

I.e. if the US ever gets its act together, we won't all have to stay home. *This* is how to protect the economy!

Comments

[cahn]

re your first link: hey COOL. That's awesome!

re your third link: ahhhhhhhh is the US EVER going to get its act together, who even knows

no, that's not fair, I do believe the US will get its act together, I know there are a lot of smart people working really hard on this problem, it may have to be done grass roots but it will get done... eventually... I hope!

[sonia]

I like your optimism! I hope we win out, not just against the pandemic, but against the malice from the top. The latter scares me more than the former.

[cahn]

My friend (who is in public health) pointed out that right now, everything that's happening -- lockdowns and organizing equipment and arranging for more places to put patients and bringing in extra doctors and so on -- it's stuff you might reasonably expect to see happening on the federal level, but in the, ah, absence of that, everyone else -- governors and mayors and local people (where I live, it's the hospitals and the doctors I hear from the most) -- is stepping up. So that's why I'm optimistic. *crosses fingers*

[jesse_the_k]

Exactly this -- my city, county, and state have stepped up to lead and take action: "safer at home."

[rosefox]

In NYC people are saying "the peak could be in two to three weeks" and that sounds very scary until you reframe it as "the incidence of new cases could start decreasing as soon as two to three weeks from now". I'm hoping the isolation really works.

That Atul Gawande piece is tremendously heartening, thank you for it.

[sonia]

I like your reframe!

Yes, the Atul Gawande piece decreased my anxiety significantly. Glad it helped you too.

[silveradept]

The "Four Groups of People" link goes to swan_tower's post right now.

[sonia]

Oops! Thanks for letting me know. Fixed.