Links: COVID-19 projections

[sonia]

From siderea: PSA: stay home now if your area is expecting a surge

I had a reaction to reading siderea's post, which was, "Still?! Again?!" I'm planning to get vegetables at the farmers market this coming Saturday. If I hunker down and don't eat fresh veggies for a while, I could skip it, but I do have to get food at some point. According to Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for Oregon, our small surge will be in a couple of weeks. As I'm typing this out, I guess that means go while I have the chance, and don't expect to go again for a bit.

The IHME is updating this chart regularly, and I've been looking at their projections for different states, and now countries. The overall prediction for the US is scary, but most states look like they're doing okay (except NY, yikes!). I saw an article that predicted the southern states with public infrastructure decimated by Republican governors and legislatures have not stopped traveling, and therefore will have a later surge. I don't see that in the IHME models. Also due to long-term effects of discriminatory, cruel policies, younger people in the South are at more risk.

The other chart I keep refreshing is the curve of deaths for many states and countries, as if my attention could help those curves flatten out.

A couple of articles that reduced my anxiety about allowing packages and food into my house from the outside: Don’t panic about shopping, getting delivery or accepting packages by Joseph G. Allen, and
Are your groceries dangerous? Facts from a Food Microbiologist by Duane Rolheiser, which debunks a video by a doctor (not food scientist) which I didn't even watch all of because it didn't ring true. Speaking of videos I'm not linking or watching all of, there's one floating around by a NYC ER respiratory doc who makes very strong statements about how COVID-19 isn't *that* catching. When he said someone who was getting over being ill could put on his N95 mask and that would make it safe to sit down and eat with his family, I clicked away. Whut, eat through the mask?! I do not think you know as much as you think you do.

Also, Reusing masks safely… a simple guide.

Comments

[sanguinity]

Thanks for passing on siderea's post! I thought this NPR article had a good set of graphs showing when the peak is expected for each state, ordered chronologically, with error clouds on each line. (Way down at the very end of the article.)

Speaking of DW people who are posting useful things right now, gaudior has been running a series called How to Handle a Plague, mostly talking about mental health stuff. A lot of what they have to say seems very sound to me. Their first post is here, and they've been updating the series on weekdays.

[sonia]

Thanks for the NPR link! And also gaudior's posts. I've been appreciating them! I have it next on my list to post supportive stuff including theirs, but I wanted to separate it from the graphs etc.

[sanguinity]

I like it when you separate out the supportive/positive stuff from the anxiety-upping stuff. It's helpful to know what kind of thing is likely to be behind the cut.

[sonia]

Thanks, I'm really pleased to hear it makes a difference!

[jesse_the_k]

+10000, and you're thoughtful that way.

[sonia]

Thanks! Trying so hard not to cause harm right now!

[firecat]

I needed to read those packages and groceries articles again, thank you. (My area has now banned reusable bags.)

[sonia]

Glad it helps! Yeah, I got confused at the farmers market last time. I thought reusable bags weren't allowed so I didn't bring mine, but then they handed me a pile of unbagged vegetables... I guess we're all figuring it out as we go along.

[firecat]

We sure are!