Links: That delta variant

[sonia]

I'm giving serious thought to what changes to make because of the delta variant surge. I never stopped wearing a mask indoors, while shopping, etc., so I'll keep doing that. I think I will not go on car rides to start bike rides with the friend who's "tired of hearing about the pandemic" and "no one else was wearing a mask in the store so I didn't either, because I'm vaccinated." *sigh* I understand that we are all at different places with processing pandemic changes, but I'm disappointed at the position he's currently taking.

I got contacted by a new client who said she's fully vaccinated, agreed on an appointment, and then she canceled when I said we'd both be masked. Whut? Lady, there's a pandemic! I think I'm going to stop accepting new clients during this surge. I'm hoping not to have to close my practice entirely again, both for my sake and the sake of my current clients.

I really wish people would stop saying, "Vaccinated people are unlikely to catch covid, so they're unlikely to transmit it once infected." Those are two different things! Delta changes the first, and apparently also the second, although I never saw a credible analysis that breakthrough infections weren't transmissible before delta. "Asymptomatic infections aren't contagious" was wrong in February and March 2020. Why are we making the exact same mistake AGAIN?


siderea has been eerily accurate throughout the pandemic, and she thinks the delta variant is a disaster.

Also from siderea, What "as transmissible as chicken pox" means for those people who don't remember before the chicken pox vaccine. Just about everyone got chickenpox (although I didn't catch it until I was 35), which implies that everyone will get delta. Yikes.

liv posted some good links and the opinion that delta isn't as bad as siderea thinks.

Do You Need To Wear A Mask Indoors Where You Live? Check This Map by Selena Simmons-Duffin, Ruth Talbot, and Thomas Wilburn. Scroll down to the map that shows county names when you go over them. You can also search by county. I think it's being updated with new data.

How A Gay Community Helped The CDC Spot A COVID Outbreak — And Learn More About Delta by Selena Simmons-Duffin via redbird.

The speed of the investigation — and the exceptional participation from the mostly gay men involved in the outbreak — helped the CDC learn new information about the delta variant. And it was that new information, in part, that prompted the agency to change its guidance for how vaccinated people should keep themselves safe at this stage of the pandemic — including a return to masking indoors.
[...]
It's no accident, Donnelly says, that his friends were so open. "The norms of the gay community say: Share your medical history, share your risks with other people so that they can be responsible and take care of themselves as well," he says. "That came with years of practice within the community, particularly around HIV and AIDS."

How We’ll Know It’s Finally Time to Stop Masking by Eleanor J. Murray and Ruby Barnard-Mayers. "The delta variant is very contagious. Here’s how epidemiologists are thinking through how to control it." The title is highly misleading. Keep wearing those masks!

The C.D.C. Needs to Stop Confusing the Public by Zeynep Tufekci. This is a rant against the CDC, which is well deserved. It also casts doubt that vaccinated people transmit the delta variant as much as unvaccinated people once they get infected. Or maybe for not as long. I really want to see research on this! Hopefully soon! Speculations from both sides don't help me make reasonable decisions.

Comments

[elainegrey]

My reading of your first siderea link is that there was evidence that vaccinated people were not transmitting pre delta--

And that's what scientific evidence found (section 6): that vaccination radically reduced the viral load of vaccinated people who nevertheless got breakthrough infections, and did, in fact, result in reduced transmission to cohabiting people (section 7).--

and that it changed with Delta--

The vaccines – which are managing to do a great job at keeping people infected by SARS-CoV-2 Delta from dying of COVID – are proving unable to reduce the viral load of people so infected. Vaccinated people remain as fully contagious as unvaccinated people. At least where Delta is concerned.

Regrets for no markup

[sonia]

Thanks! I went back and read the previous article, and it does refer to a couple of not-yet-peer-reviewed studies. The best-supported assertion is "vaccination cuts transmission by half" (pre-delta) which is not nothing, and yet not a reason in my opinion to stop wearing masks, so I never did. I think the CDC figured, as long as infections are decreasing, and people are happier/spending more money, who cares if people get infected unnecessarily. Never mind the current terrible situation.